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Situational Analysis

April 1, 2020

Humans,

It's been a little over two weeks since I started sending out daily emails. I realized on March 15th that I had a job to do when I was talking to a good friend who did not understand the importance of social distancing. 

My role was going to be to educate people. 

To influence as many people as possible outside my immediate circle. 

To interpret the information coming out and distill down the most important concepts. 

It has taken the form of a daily letter to you humans. I have sent it to essentially every email address I can think of and many of you have told me you are forwarding them onto your networks. Thank you.

I know it has felt like an eternity but it has only been a little over two weeks since my first email. It's a good time to review the past couple of weeks. We are starting to enter a different phase. I know we all can all feel it and it's not going to be very much fun. Finally, we seem to have the majority of people on board understanding what the future has to hold. 

So before we get too far, let's see the main facts we have to deal with laid out sequentially with all the parts and pieces on display...  let’s do a situational analysis...

  • We are in a historic time.

  • There are essentially three pandemics on record of which this compares. The Plague and the Spanish Flu being the other two. Let’s hope the Covid pandemic stays in 3rd place. 

  • SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes Covid 19 illness. This virus is “novel.” That means no human has ever seen this virus so there is no immunity anywhere to it. Viruses are invisible. These are important facts. Especially the last one. Let them sink in.

  • Corona is particularly bad because people with the infection infect people before they have symptoms, it takes anywhere from 2-14 days before you know you have it, and it takes about 1-2 wks to kill you. 

  • It kills old and sickly people the most, but it kills young people as well. 

  • It was likely spreading in the US since mid-January well before it was recognized in the US. 

  • This pandemic is experiencing exponential growth. Exponential growth is hard for humans to grasp. It's very boring at first and then gets really bad really quickly. Unfortunately, there is a good example of exponential growth on any Covid counter showing the spread of the virus in the US right now.

  • We have too few tests in the US so we really have no idea how bad the problem is (or what the true mortality is). 

  • We need to socially distance because it will flatten the curve and that will ensure the healthcare demand stays below the capacity.

  • Any social distancing action we take will take TWO weeks before we see the result. This is perhaps the most important fact to understand about the next month. 

  • There is really not one curve. Every region essentially has its own curve. New York’s curve is the worst right now and its healthcare demand is in the process of outstripping its capacity.

  • Outstripping healthcare capacity means many more people will die than necessary. If you need a hospital bed and a ventilator, you want one available if you get sick. Also, humans, please let's not make this a political issue. The virus does not care whether you are blue or red. 

  • Medical safety equipment is in short supply and has been and will continue to be a problem.

  • Not slowing the disease is not an option because the death would bein the millionsin the US alone and the economic destruction certainly be defined as a depression vs a recession. Sot he best thing to do for our health and economy is to flatten the curve. 
  • The economy is going to be hurt badly. Many will lose their jobs, their homes, their lives. No one will make it through this pandemic without being affected. 

  • Society has been slow to understand the importance of social distancing but that is changing fast. People are starting to get it. Our country’s national, state, and local leadership is now almost completely on board. The tipping point occurred sometime in the last two weeks and this is amazing (and gives me the most hope).

  • Social distancing is our individual part. It means anytime you go out and interact with anyone and it is not essential for you to do so, you are part of the problem and not part of the solution.

  • We are in the Hammer phase now - the sit at home and let hospitals and communities get ready or, now in many places, fight the fight at the frontlines. 

  • We will be in the Dance phase soon. The Dance will let some people get out more. 

  • We are all learning what are essential trips (going to the grocery store and going to do essential jobs) and how to safely do them. We are also in the process of figuring out what are non-essential trips (golfing, haircuts, and having friends over). 

  • It is clear to the scientifically and medically minded that non-medical masks for the general public when they are out for essential trips will be a better option than no mask. We will let the government folks debate this. In the meantime, wear a non-medical mask. 

  • Just like wearing a seatbelt wearing a mask does not give you justification to drive recklessly, wearing a non-medical mask shouldn’t give you a license to leave the house for non-essential trips. 

  • People are coming up with solutions to make masks at home at scale. 

  • Factories are re-tooling and solving the safety equipment problem. I shared an article about Anheuser-Busch and here is another story. 

  • Businesses are adapting to run more safely during this time. 

Time is our friend. People aren’t talking about this enough. Everyday you can go and not get Covid...

  • the closer you are to a vaccine

  • the closer you are to even more effective treatment 

  • the longer medical professionals will have to understand and study this disease

The more time we have the better you will be, the better our country will be, and the better our world will be.  

Our destiny is in our hands. What we have accomplished so far has been inspiring and what we will do is going to be even more amazing. 

Someone sent me this video and it touched me…

 

 

Stay emotionally connected and physically distant,

Greg

PS: On my March 30th email, I mentioned that we needed the Go to the F**K to Sleep book that was narrated by Samuel L Jackson to be rewritten to the title - Stay the F**K home. Apparently, Samuel listened. Enjoy

PPS: Since you made it this far. You get a bonus. Enjoy this.