March 20, 2020
I am not waiting till tonight to write. This is too important to wait.
Tomas Pueyo and the team have put up a follow-up article (https://medium.com/@
He is so good at breaking it down. It was his article that started my wheels turning. Him explaining the fact that we will have 12 days of exponential growth after China-style lockdown changed my world immediately. In this article, he articulates what needs to happen now and then what will follow better than I ever could. So, I want you to read this, immediately.
Seriously, stop what you are doing. Read the article slowly and understand it. It is long and takes some time. Our future is worth it. He introduces two new terms that we will start using a lot. The Hammer and the Dance.
We need the hammer across the whole US now (I'll take California and New York over nothing). Hopefully, the entire country or 48 more states and territories do the same ASAP. The hammer is coming. We just need it quicker. Also, the quicker the hammer, the quicker the dance. Doesn't the dance sound better?
Talk to everyone you can about this. Talk to your real estate agent, your banker. Call your barber, your builder, your housekeeper. Talk to people outside your normal circle. Let them think you are crazy. It really doesn't matter. The people that matter in your lives will know you are doing the right thing.
Also, a very smart person sent me these questions so I figured you might have them too...
On the worldometer you linked to, it shows the US as having nearly 14k confirmed/presumptive positive mild cases and 64 serious or critical. Yet hospitals are saying they are already stretched and at capacity (particularly on the coasts). Let’s assume all 64 of the serious or critical are in hospitals, on ventilators, etc. That doesn’t seem like enough to overwhelm the healthcare system. (?)Old data. We have no systems that I am aware of nationally that tells you the current capacity of every hospital at once - the data will catch up. If you have the data, let me know where it is published.So what are people with mild cases - or people who aren’t infected - doing to contribute to the problem?Healthcare personnel will need to use protective equipment to interact with these people (we will run out very soon everywhere and are already running out now in places that are the worst hit today. Lots of articles coming out about hospitals asking people to start making masks by hand). Going to the ER will not change the course of mild disease. Healthcare people will provide no benefit to mild cases. We can only help with severe cases. Mild cases will not get tested. There is no treatment other than time. Mild cases or people that just want testing will spread the Covid they have or get the Covid they don't yet have and will get no benefit.
For example, is it mild cases going to the ER that is adding complexity and unnecessary burden?Yes.Are there factors related to testing that are interfering?We need offsite testing available to test asymptomatic or mild cases safely. This is important, but not that important for you and me right this very second. Lots of solutions coming.Are the numbers of serious and critical cases grossly underreported?Yes.Are the reports of hospitals at capacity overstated and it’s more of a projection of what’s to come?This is hitting everywhere at different times. New York and Washington have the most cases and that is where I have heard issues of overcapacity. It will hit everyone else very soon - hopefully our distancing is buying us some time. Hopefully, in some places, it will avert a disaster. If you are >60yr or you have other diseases stay home and take care of yourself. If you get Covid, you want to be well-rested, have your diseases optimized, and be ready to kick some Corona-ass.
Stay physically distant - convince others to do so as well!
PS: Thank you so much for everything each and every one of you are doing. We are supporting the troops (our healthcare workers). It's going to be a nasty war. It has the potential to make the number of deaths during WWII look like child's play if we don't act now. What you are doing and the sacrifices you are making are AMAZING. Keep it up.
PPS: I realized that not everyone speaks English and Corona doesn't care what language you speak. So, I had last night's email translated into Spanish https://www.kainexus.