March 26, 2020
Italy is flattening its curve!!!
This should be in the front-page headlines. I’m no statistician but it is hard to ignore that they have not been in exponential growth for the 4th day in a row! This is what has to happen in order to flatten a curve. Social distancing works! We just have to give it time to show the result (at least two weeks and maybe more if we don’t go extreme enough).
Italy is essentially a time machine for us. They are about 1.5 - 2 weeks in “our future.” This provides good evidence that extreme social distancing works in the western world. Below is the prettiest image I have seen in the last few weeks, for sure.
I really really really hope this is good data and not just an anomaly due to a lack of testing, but its what we got, and it makes logical sense, so I’m going with it.
Kids in Quarantine: Advice from Parents
I want to bring your attention to a panel-style webinar we (KaiNexus) are doing tomorrow called: Kids in Quarantine: Advice from Parents. If that is interesting to you, please register as it’s filling up fast and will be good lunch-break fodder.
Some selections of what I have been reading and other odds and ends.
Here are great articles that I learned stuff from, or made me think, that I read in the last few days.
Nice New Yorker article about Social Distancing. I loved this line:
The way I look at it for social distancing is that you never know what your individual action, especially a preventive action, can and will do. It is very hard to quantify a negative of something bad not happening.
Just a damn interesting Atlantic article about CV.
Larry Brilliant (apparently that is his name) a Smallpox Epidemiologist
Enforcing Shelter at Home: Super interesting to think through how as a society we are going to enforce shelter at home. Are you going to put people in jail? Talk about counterproductive. Hopefully, we never need to and those that are complying will be enough.
There is science behind exponential growth being hard to understand. Hell, just look at people’s retirement accounts right? Most important time to save is in your twenties, right? And very few do. Exponential growth is really really good for good outcomes and really really bad for bad outcomes. That's right I said it first.
ER docs talking, two have Covid illness (recovering). The first 10-15 min is interesting to even a non-medical person. As the talk goes on it gets more and more difficult to follow if you aren’t an ER or Critical Care doc.
Interesting place to get help pausing regulations hurt the good fight:
Here is a great example of the innovation explosion that we are just at the beginning of seeing. There will be “sexy” innovation and “boring” innovation. They will both key to the solution.
Boring innovation: https://www.huffpost.com/
And more “boring” innovation that may save your life...
Someone sent me a version of this facebook post. It apparently comes from a Johns Hopkins University professor. I love the reminder that viruses are just replicating pieces of DNA. They are not “alive”, but it does bring up an interesting conversation of what is the definition of life.
I met with friends on an internet video chat last night. It was much more natural than I thought it was going to be. It was really nice to see people's faces. One interesting question that came up from last night... will handshaking come back into our culture?
Hey, tomorrow I will focus on the positive side effects of this devastating time. It is not intended to ignore the suffering and difficulties, but I believe we can focus on the good while still being respectful of the negative impacts. You can help - please send me a few lines or a link to a nice story or maybe something that made you laugh.
Stay emotionally connected and physically distant,